Anand favored to win finals; betting odds and statistics

By Frank “Boy” Pestaño
Chessmoso

Viswanathan Anand has been picked by oddsmakers to win the championship currently ongoing in San Luis, Argentina. The betting site Betsson has given Anand a 35.7 percent probability to win, followed by Topalov at 23.2, Leko at 18.8, Svidler at 6.1, Morozevich at 5.4, Polgar and Adams at 4.9 and Kasimdzhanov at 2.

Translating into actual money, a $100 bet will win $280 if you bet on Anand, $420 for Topalov, $520 for Leko, $1,600 for Svidler, $2,000 for either Polgar or Adams and a hefty $5,000 for Kasimdzhanov.

Furthermore, the expert who should know best, Garry Kasparov, has gone on record that the trio (Anand, Topalov and Leko) has a 95-percent probability that the champion will come from them. This gives the rest only a five percent chance, which is ridiculous considering the past records and the strength of the players.

Remember the last Fide Championship? Kasimdzhanov came out of nowhere to best the favorites. Also, Alexander Khalifman and Ruslan Ponomariov were never considered by “experts” to win, yet they were Fide Champions back in 1999 and 2002, respectively.

In fact, Nigel Short disagrees with Kasparov. Considering that the trio has a 17-1 odds to win, he has publicly wagered a modest $100 to Kasparov to put his money where his mouth is. He relishes the prospect of winning $1,700 should any of the rest prevail.

According to Frederic Friedel of Chessbase, “Betsson – or more precisely the people who are placing wagers there – estimate the odds of one of the trio winning the event at 78.7 percent (with the betting margin).”

You, of course, cannot bet such a wager, but they would give you odds of 1.3 if you could. Conversely, the combined odds of one of the other five winning in the bettors’ opinion is 23.9 percent, and they would give you odds of 4.2. Which means that betting $100 would net you $420 – and that Kasparov would be giving Short unreasonable odds if he would indeed accept the wager that Nigel is offering him.

STATISTICS. There is, however, another set of statistics by mathematician Jeff Sonas. He has thoroughly analyzed the gaming history of the players concerned, the format of the championship (double-round robin) and has produced a different set of numbers.

According to his calculations, the combined chance of any of the five winning is 41 percent. He has considered the tendency of Leko to draw his games, and therefore, his chance to win this tournament is down, as the winner will certainly have a high plus score. In fact, Peter Svidler has a better percentage to win this tournament compared to Leko (12-11 percent) and Judit is right there with them with also with 11.

Sonas calculates that Anand has a 31 percent chance to win followed by Topalov at 17. Morozevich winning chance is at eight, Adams at seven and the lowest-rated player in the tournament, Kasimdzhanov, at three.

Another set of statistics Sonas calculated are the chances of various tiebreaks needed to win the title. He has determined the chance of having a clear winner after 14 rounds is 79 percent. Another result such as shared No.1 spot, which will be resolved without rapids via head-to-head criteria, has a chance of 12.5 percent.

Another possibility on a shared first place, resolved without rapids via number of wins criteria is six percent. Finally there is a 2.5 percent chance that more than two winners will share first place and will be resolved via tiebreaks.

BACKGROUND. For those who do not know the background of this World Championship, let me refresh you with this information.

The participants are 1) Vishy Anand, 35, India (Elo 2788) 2) Veselin Topalov, 30, Bulgaria (2788) 3) Peter Leko, 26, Hungary (2673) 4) Peter Svidler, 29, Russia (2738) 5) Judit Polgar, 29, Hungary (2735) 6) Michael Adams, 34, England (2719) 7) Alexander Morozevich, 28, Russia (2707) 8) Rustam Kasimdzhanov, 26, Uzbekistan (2670).

The Champion will receive $300,000, the second $140,000, third $100,000 and down the line. The tail-ender will get $50,000.

Format of the tournament is double-round robin with time controls of two hours for the first 40 moves, followed by one hour for the next 20 moves and 15 minutes with 30 seconds increment for all moves.

The first game was played last night. Anand won over Polgar in 41 moves of a Caro Khan, while Topalov had a close win over Leko in 40 moves of a Sicilian Najdorf. Svidler and Adams drew in 24 moves of a Petroff, likewise Kasimdzhanov and Morozevich in a Sicilian Najdorf in 54 moves.